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Spread
Scan Issue: April 04, 2007 - Volume 138
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Each
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Andy's Spread Scan Example:
This
week we look at CZ7 – CU7.
Today we consider
an intra-market spread: long December 07 Corn and short September
07 Corn (CZ7 – CU7). The spread traded in a range from November
2006 through February 2007, broke out of the range in March 2007, and
has been moving higher since then. The statistical seasonal time window
goes from 03/30 till 08/05. That’s a very long time, even for a
spread, but the margin is not very high and intra-market spreads
are usually less risky then spreads in different markets.
Traders
may want to enter the spread market at 3^0 limit. Margin for the
spread is $608. Suggested risk is $250. Initial projected objective
is $250, then a move to 30 or higher. Basis is seasonal (app. 3/30
– 8/10) and a Hook.
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On
March 20 we told subscribers of our professional daily spreads
& position trading newsletter, Traders
Notebook, "Consider selling May Corn at 405 ¾ stop market
(if open > 406). Initial margin is $1,350. Suggested stop at 413
(app. $400). Initial projected objective is $400, then a move down
to 370 or lower. Basis is a TTE in front of a RH."

Here's
how we suggested managing this trade:
03/23
Short at 405 ¾. Suggested stop at 413.
03/26 Trade hit first suggested target today. Suggest moving stop
to break even.
03/29 Suggest moving stop to 398^2 (if you are more short term oriented)
or break even (if you prefer long term trade).
03/30 Suggest taking some money at around 368.
02/02 Suggest moving the stop to 359.
For more
information about our daily newsletter, visit our Spread Website to find out more about Traders Notebook

Questions
or Comments? Please email us: support@spread-trading.com
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Andy Jordan's
Trading Bites
Student's
Question: "Andy, what do you think about paper trading?
Does it fit into professional trading somehow?"
Andy:
Yes, I personally think it does. Paper trading cannot replace real trading
for many (mainly emotionally based) reasons, but it can be
an important part of the process of finding and trading a new method. First you
might have an idea about how to trade a market based on price bars,
candlestick charts, indicators, or whatever you use for your trading.
Next you would back test it with older data. You would do it manually
or by using a back testing software. After being satisfied with your
back testing, you could start to do some paper trading. Many trading
ideas or methods seem to work pretty well during back testing,
but cannot make any money in the “real world of trading”. Paper
trading can definitely help to find the weakness of any method,
but you should take the paper trading seriously. Only if you are satisfied
with the paper trading results should you start trading your method
with real money. Start with very low risk to see how your method
performs with the reality of actual money on the line. Then, if it seems to perform well during trading it for a while with only low risk,
you can increase your risk based on your money management. By
the way, you should go through this paper trading process with every new method you
want to trade, no matter whether it is your own method or a method you
have just bought!
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©
2007 by Trading Educators, Inc
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Disclaimer:
The Commodity
Futures Trading Commission has asked us to advise you that trading spreads
is complex and carries a high degree of risk. While there is opportunity
for incredible wealth building, there is also the risk of losing even
more than you invested. Of course, that's not unlike most other businesses.
But informed traders are the best traders!
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